2024 Super Rugby Pacific – Quarter Final Previews
0By James Rodburn
After 15 rounds the business end of Super Rugby Pacific has arrived, and oddities resulting from the competition format aside (after 4 months we’ve only lost 4 teams), we’ve been treated to a mostly entertaining competition and high standard of rugby, and it should only get better from here.
Last weekend a pulsating final round capped off the regular season, in which the Crusaders didn’t make the playoffs for the first time since 2015, the Hurricanes finished top for the first time since 2016 (thank you Chiefs, eventually), and in a cruel dose of irony, the Rebels made the playoffs for the first time in their history, just as it was decided the axe would be taken to the franchise at the end of this season.
Quarter Final 1 – Chiefs (4th) vs Reds (5th)
When: Friday, 7th June. 7:05pm NZ time.
Where: FMG Stadium, Hamilton
TAB odds: Chiefs 1.22, Reds 4.00
A replay of last year’s quarter (the 1st placed Chiefs beat the 8th placed Reds 29-20), sees in theory the closest match of the weekend. The hosts go into this one with some middling form, losing a tight one to the Hurricanes a couple of weeks ago before being beaten handily by the Blues last week. An interesting storyline from that game was the Chiefs’ scrum seemingly having no answers for the Blues, despite the teams being ranked 3rd and 10th respectively at scrum time across the whole season.
The Reds meanwhile are in solid form, having only lost 2 of their last 7 games, although it should be noted they haven’t played a New Zealand side for over a month. Their recent games with the Chiefs have been very close though, with winning margins of 6, 6, 2, 3, 9 and 6 in the last 6 encounters for 3 wins apiece.
The ‘Average Competition Rank’ catch-all stat at the bottom of the graphic above (an average of the 10 rankings in the main body) has the Chiefs (3.7) and Reds (5.0) pretty much right in line with their finishing positions on the ladder. If the Chiefs can rediscover their best form in the tight five, their strong attack and kicking game on the back of Damian McKenzie, Anton Lienert-Brown, Emoni Narawa and Shaun Stevenson (the latter 3 of whom are returning after a week off), should see the home side get the win in a close one.
Quarter Final 2 – Hurricanes (1st) vs Rebels (8th)
When: Saturday, 8th June. 4:35pm NZ time.
Where: Sky Stadium, Wellington
TAB odds: Hurricanes 1.01, Rebels 13.00
Given the Hurricanes have been consistently there or thereabouts at the business end of the Super Rugby season for a decade now, it’s somewhat surprising that this will be their first home playoff match in 5 years. But Covid combined with several recent 5th place finishes means the Hurricanes have had to wait a while for the chance to repeat the heroics of the 2016 title-winning side at home.
They’ve given themselves every opportunity to do just that, qualifying top for the first time since that 2016 team, meaning home playoffs all the way to the final if they keep winning. The key stats paint just as impressive of a picture, with the Canes ranked top 3 in basically every category. Weaknesses seem few and far between for Clark Laidlaw’s side, with even a disappointing season-ending injury to Cam Roigard countered by a career resurgence for his replacement TJ Perenara.
Super Rugby throws up quirks at every turn these days. This week’s one is that the Hurricanes will face a team that not only boasts just a 5-9 record and has lost 6 games on the bounce heading into the playoffs, but also could well be about to play the last game in their history. The Rebels have often struggled to gain traction in a crowded Melbourne sporting market, and last week the decision was made public that the plug was being pulled on the franchise after this season.
Anything can happen in a one off game. But with the team humming, home advantage and more squad depth than the Mariana trench, it’s hard to see anything other than a convincing Hurricanes victory here, and the end of the road for the Rebels franchise (cue the Boys II Men).
Quarter Final 3 – Blues (2nd) vs Drua (7th)
When: Saturday, 8th June. 7:05pm NZ time.
Where: Eden Park, Auckland
TAB odds: Blues 1.03, Drua 10.00
The Blues will be kicking themselves harder than a Jordie Barrett 60 metre penalty attempt after letting top position slip out of their grasp, with a loss to the Crusaders two weeks ago and then a last minute, bonus point-denying try from the Chiefs last week. But they shouldn’t fret for too long, because all the key signs point to a deep playoff run. They’re strong across the board, have the best attack in the competition in terms of points and tries scored, and the best defence by the same measures.
Vern Cotter has the forwards laying the platform to perfection and the team as a whole primed for a tilt at the title. They’ve also been close to unbeatable at home in recent times, having won their last 13 straight there, and 31 of 36 since the start of Super Rugby Aotearoa in 2020.
That isn’t welcome news for the visiting Drua, whose stark difference between home and away performances is already legendary. Since their inception, the Drua have won 11 of 15 games in Fiji by an average winning margin of 4.3 points. Away from home, they’ve won 1 of 22 matches with an average losing margin of 24.5 points.
In other words, there is an almost 29 point swing in winning margin between Drua games in Fiji, and those away – an incredible number. With a 7pm kickoff in Auckland on Saturday, hot and humid Lautoka will seem a world away for the Drua. If they can stay within 15 points of the Blues it will be a solid effort and another building block for future years.
Quarter Final 4 – Brumbies (3rd) vs Highlanders (6th)
When: Saturday, 8th June. 9:35pm NZ time.
Where: GIO Stadium, Canberra
TAB odds: Brumbies 1.15, Highlanders 5.00
The final match of the Saturday playoff triple-header sees the somewhat-under-the-radar Brumbies hosting the slowly-but-steadily-improving Highlanders. The Brumbies are under the radar for a couple of reasons, firstly because they finished just 3 competition points behind the Blues on the ladder, but with only a fraction of the fanfare. Once again the Brumbies have done what the Brumbies always do – be the best Australian team, and be very tough to beat at home (since the start of 2022 they’ve won 20 of 23 there).
Another reason is perhaps because, as the stats graphic shows, it’s not immediately clear where they derive their success from. They are average or below average in almost every category, with only their amount of tries conceded ranking matching their 3rd place on the competition ladder. Their average winning margin of 7.1 points is considerably less than their top 4 counterparts (Blues 18.2, Hurricanes 14.2, Chiefs 12.5) despite an easier draw, suggesting a lot of low-scoring, close wins.
As strong as the Brumbies are at home, this should serve as encouragement for the Highlanders, as lower winning margins naturally means less margin for error. The Highlanders however, have had their own issues scoring points, ranking third-last in the competition for tries and points scored in 2024.
While a clear step down from the top 5 teams (they finished 12 competition points below the 5th placed Reds), 4 of the Highlanders’ 6 season wins came in the final 6 rounds of the regular season. They’ve also won 4 of their last 5 matches in Canberra, quite a surprising amount given the recent fortunes of the 2 teams. This one could certainly be closer than the bookmakers’ odds would have you believe.
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