2024 Super Rugby Pacific – Semi Final 2 Preview
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By James Rodburn
Semi-Final 2 – Hurricanes (1st) vs Chiefs (4th)
When: Saturday, 15th June. 4:35pm NZ time.
Where: Sky Stadium, Wellington
TAB odds: Hurricanes 1.60 (-3.5), Chiefs 2.25 (+3.5).
Finally, we have what shapes up as a classic Super Rugby finals match. But before we get into all the reasons why this should be an excellent, close game, let’s hit the home advantage theme one more time. Both of these teams are undefeated in home semi-finals (a combined 7-0) while being winless (0-12) in away semi-finals. Statistical significance doesn’t get much stronger than 100% and 0%.
And if you’re tempted to assume that the home advantage effect is lessened when it’s 2 New Zealand teams involved, the winning percentage of the home team in finals matches involving 2 New Zealand teams is 81% (22/27). And if you compare that to the same metric but for all finals matches, we get a home team winning percentage of….81% (94/116). No difference.
This number only increases when first place teams are involved. In 25 semi-finals hosted by the first place team, they’ve won 22 (88%) with an average winning margin of 11.6 points. So far so good for the Hurricanes.
But despite all of the above the general consensus is that this will be close. The 3.5 point start for the Chiefs implies that on a neutral field, the bookmakers consider the 2 teams basically even. The per game stats graphic above shows quite clearly that despite finishing first, the Hurricanes have drawn the harder semi-final. While the Hurricanes are statistically the strongest team in the competition, the Chiefs are not that far behind.
Of particular note is the set piece, where the Chiefs have a slight edge over the Canes at both scrum and lineout time. Given last week’s injury to Xavier Numia, the Canes will be grateful that Tyrel Lomax has been slated to return. With some rain possibly forecast for this game too, this could have been an area the Chiefs would have, and may still will, target in order not only to win ball and penalties, but to slow down the Hurricanes dynamic attack that feasts on front foot ball.
While both sides obviously love to run the ball, general play kicking could also prove crucial. Although they ultimately lost the match between the 2 sides 3 weeks ago, the massive boots of Shaun Stevenson and Etene Nanai-Seturo got the Chiefs out of multiple sticky situations in the second half, especially when the Hurricanes were threatening to extend their lead. This allowed the Chiefs to work their way back into the match after a bad start. The exit play kicking from the likes of TJ Perenara and Jordie Barrett will have to be on point for the home side.
In terms of last week’s games, it’s tricky to glean too much from either when it comes to this Saturday. While scrappy against the Rebels in the first half, once the Hurricanes clicked into gear they almost scored at will in the second half. The skill level of both the forwards and backs of the Hurricanes has been a joy to watch all year and is a credit to the work the coaching staff and players have put in. The interplay and short passing constantly keeps defences guessing, and when the runners hitting the line are Asofa Aumua, Braydon Iose and Jordie Barrett, they can pile on the points against anyone.
While the Canes peaked later on last weekend it was a little bit of the reverse for the Chiefs, who streaked away to a virtually unassailable lead early. And although the Reds had the better of the second half, you can hardly blame the Chiefs for shutting up shop somewhat rather than keep the foot on the pedal.
With a nod to James Parsons from the Aotearoa Rugby Pod for pointing this out, what the Chiefs did have to do last weekend was make a lot of tackles. In fact they ending up having to make 2.5 times as many as the Hurricanes did (242 vs 98). Who’s to say if this will still have an effect 7 days later, but if you combine that with a home crowd and the quality of the Canes bench, perhaps that could give the advantage to the Hurricanes when the match enters the home stretch, when the game is likely to be won and lost.
Prediction: I’ll repeat my earlier reluctance, especially when it involves my own team in such a big spot. But since what I say makes no difference, Hurricanes by 10.
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