Sports Illustrated’s NZ Olympic Prediction

By Keith Miller

Each Olympic Year, Brian Cazeneuve from Sports Illustrated does a wonderful, wonderful thing.  The veteran journalist scours all 306 events on offer at the Olympics, and works out who he reckons will be on the podium in each event.

It’s a fascinating, laborious and ultimately futile exercise, but a fantastic achievement nonetheless.  Every sport, every category, every weight division, every discipline – and this year, he reckons that the following New Zealanders will feature:-

GOLD MEDALS – 8:

Lisa Carrington – Kayak Singles 200mtrs

Lisa Carrington – Kayak Singles 500mtrs

Mens Cycling – Team Sprint

Linda Villumsen – Cycling Time Trial

Mahe Drysdale – Rowing Single Sculls

Hamish Bond & Eric Murray – Rowing Pair without Coxswain

Mens Rugby Sevens

Peter Burling & Blair Tuke – Sailing 49er Skiff

 

SILVER MEDALS – 8:

Eddie Dawkins – Cycling Keirin

Lydia Ko – Golf

Chris Harris & Robbie Manson – Rowing Double Sculls

Mens Rowing Lightweight Four without Coxswain

Emma Twigg – Rowing Single Sculls

Womens Rowing Eight

Womens Rugby Sevens

Valerie Adams – Shot Put

 

BRONZE MEDALS – 3:

Eve MacFarlane & Zoe Stevenson – Rowing Double Sculls

Rebecca Scown & Genevieve Behrent – Rowing Pair without Coxswain

Men’s Team Pursuit

 

There are some notable athletes missing from his list.  No Lauren Boyle, no Tom Walsh, no Polly Powrie & Jo Aleh.  There are a few others who would rate as solid chances to at least medal (the Womens’ hockey team is a good example), and others who could be considered outside chances to sneak onto the Podium – the likes of Eliza McCartney, or even Nick Willis.

Some on this list will be looking at higher honours (Val Adams the standout there), while others could be considered fortunate to finish as high as predicted (both Sevens Teams).  There may be some surprise over Lydia Ko not being a lock in for Gold, but the topsy-turvy nature of golf almost makes it a lottery when it comes to this kind of exercise.

Linda Villumsen is the interesting one here.  Incredibly consistent in the big rides, but her brilliant Commonwealth Games gold in Glasgow was her first real breakthrough.  It will be very interesting to see if she can kick on from that.  She has slipped well and truly under the radar, and could be a sneaky gold as predicted.

As far events that New Zealand has a solid history in, Cazeneuve is predicting no medals in the Equestrian, and only one in the Sailing.  Not surprisingly, most of our medals are predicted to come via the water, or on two wheels.

I’ll be following all results keenly to see exactly how well Bran Cazeneuve’s predictions perform. 19 medals would be above the 14 predicted by High Performance New Zealand, but below the 25 predicted here by Gracenote.  Either way, it looks more than promising that we’ll be bringing home more medals than any other Games.

Overall, 8 Golds seems about right.  And whoever grabs out first medal will be the 100^th medallist for New Zealand at the Summer Olympics.

I’ll be watching Rio 2016 when you can’t, so follow me on Twitter

Many thanks to Hamish Girvan for forwarding the document on – follow him on Twitter