Super Bowl Preview Part II
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As has become an annual tradition at Sportsfreak towers, our resident NFL fans Hamish Girvan, Scott MacLean, Stephen Gallagher, Jonathan Paterson and Ryan Nixon turned their attention towards the big game. With the big game taking place in Las Vegas, a Taylor Swift subplot, and a rematch of 2020’s showcase fixture, there’s plenty to discuss. Here are the rest of their thoughts.
- What’s the key to the 49ers winning?
SG: Three letters: CMC. The ex-Panther Christian McCaffrey has been immense all year, and we’ll have to assume Carolina are happy for him given how woeful their own team is. McCaffrey runs the ball so effectively. A threat every time he touches the ball, and a TD waiting to happen every time San Francisco are in the red-zone. Teams do everything they can to shut him down, and Kansas City probably has their best-ever defensive unit, but I believe CMC will carry this 49ers side on his back when things get tough in the Super Bowl.
HG: Quarterback Brock Purdy – it’s that simple. He has to have another game like he did in the Conference Championship against the Lions. If instead, he plays like he did in the divisional round against Green Bay then it won’t happen for the 49ers. The best quarterback in a Super Bowl wins, so it will take all of Purdy’s ability to beat out Mahomes.
SM: Stopping the run. They haven’t been poor this year, ranking third in rush yards conceded and midtable in yards per carry. But both the Packers and Lions had their way with them on the ground, and you can bet that the Chiefs took notice and will give punishing runner Isiah Pacheco plenty of looks. They also need to start better than those two matches – I doubt you can give Mahomes and company a head start and expect to catch up.
JP: Keeping the load light on Brock Purdy. If the defense can harass Mahomes and keep the Chiefs offense in check, and leave Purdy with little more to do but hand off to CMC and throw short/intermediate passes to Deebo, Aiyuk, and Kittle, then they should be golden. But if they find themselves behind (again), one has to think that they used all their luck up in the Championship Game with that golden 5 mins where they rode Aiyuk’s helmet rebound catch and Jamhyr Gibbs’ fumble to two quick scores.
RN: Control the game. They’re a team built for playing from in front, with Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and company able to gain yards on the ground, and their Nick Bosa led pass rush then able to get after Patrick Mahomes if the Chiefs are forced into throwing. The Chiefs have been vulnerable to the pass rush this season, which isn’t helped by a receiving corps that struggles to generate quick open looks, but for the 49ers to capitalise on this, they need to dictate the game flow.
- What’s the key to the Chiefs winning?
SG: Patrick Mahomes to Travis Kelce. The star combo started the year well, faded late in the regular season, but have been absolutely fire in the playoffs. I have a soft spot for tight ends. I always thought I’d make a good one, even if I am 5’11”. This partnership is this generation’s Brady and Gronk. Feels like every 3rd down, 15 to 87 more often than not gets them a first down. The 49ers will have to be very tough on Kelce and rattle him early if they can. But honestly – I don’t think there’s anything stopping this man.
HG: Here’s what I wrote in 2020 for the same matchup.
“Simple STOP THE RUN – The Chiefs deficiencies at stopping the opposition’s run game has been severely exposed this season, however there is a small silver lining in the way they nullified NFL rushing leader Derek Henry in the AFC Championship game – still here they come up against a potential 3-4 head running monster in what the 49ers bring to the field.”
The Chiefs ability to stop the run hasn’t really changed and it was odd to see Baltimore not have their usual running game plan in the conference final. If the Chiefs can stop 49ers superstar Christian McCaffrey from making big yards they will have a good chance of victory. The Chiefs defense has been underrated this season and it’s probably the best defense Mahomes has had so far, but they still need to nullify the 49ers on the ground.
SM: Mahomes being able to get in sync with a receiver not named Kelce. If 49ers cornerbacks Deommodore Lenoir and Chavarious Ward can shut down those options, it becomes easier to key in on Mahomes’ most reliable target. If Mahomes can get something out of a group that has been much-maligned this season, it becomes a far easier game for him.
JP: It’s the flipside to the 49ers’ key – they need to make Purdy be the one to beat them, and beat them deep. Keep guys close to the line to try and smother CMC, and to clog up the screens and crosses that the Niners receivers are so good at turning into big plays, and force him into trying to make big time throws. There has been a lot of polarising discussion on Purdy’s abilities, or lack thereof, and both sides are probably wrong. Some think he is the next coming of Tom Brady, others the next Brady Quinn, but reasonable heads see him for what he is – a reasonable quarterback who is in the perfect system for his skill set. So forcing him to go to throws that aren’t the system’s bread and butter seems like the best way to disrupt him.
RN: Mahomes being able to spread the ball around. I expect Travis Kelce to get his as the focal point, but he needs support from the supporting cast. Isiah Pacheco will be relied upon to generate early down yardage on the ground, and Rashee Rice, Marques Valdez-Scantling, Justin Watson and whichever other peripheral players get looks will need to make plays to ensure the Chiefs turn possession into points.
- Predictions: Who wins? By how many? Who is MVP?
SG: Hard to go past Kansas City Chiefs. Although the prospect of Mr. Irrelevant Brock Purdy winning a Super Bowl would be fantastic, the experience and the grit that KC have in the playoffs seems to guide them brilliantly in a Super Bowl. I’m hoping it’s close, after a great NFL season by both sides. The fans deserve a goodie. KC 27-21. Kelce MVP.
HG: Chiefs 27-20. MVP Mahomes to get over the predicted 29.5 rushing yards, while Travis Kelce scores a touchdown and points up to Tay in a hospitality suite. There’s your multi bet people!
SM: Niners by 7. George Kittle has a monster day and becomes the first tight end to take home the MVP hardware.
JP: Chiefs win 27-13, and Mahomes wins MVP in a canter.
RN: This game has sneaky disappointment potential. Chiefs win 20-6 on the back of a strong defensive display, with Pacheco becoming first running back to win MVP since 1998.
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